The last Israeli polls are in
before the election on January 22, and there’s a glimmer of hope for
those concerned about a pro-settlement far-right government.
Likud-Beiteinu is still the largest list, and Benjamin Netanyahu will
probably be prime minister again, but the gap between the
right-religious and center-left-Arab blocs is the smallest it’s been
since the beginning of the campaign: 63 to 57 seats according to a Dahaf poll (other polls
suggest a slightly bigger gap). This gives the center/center-left
parties increased leverage in coalition bargaining, and weakens Jewish
Home’s own negotiating position. In turn, this means the peace process
with the Palestinians can be credibly revived.
I know this sounds panglossian, and others have made strong arguments against such a scenario. Michael Cohen and Larry Derfner
both contend there really isn’t a viable left-wing party that could
offset rightist trends in government. But rather than expect a change in
direction, it might be more realistic to expect mitigation of the worst
excesses of illiberalism and settlement-building that would otherwise
dominate policymaking in a far-rightist government. This would create a
foundation for parties like Labor and Meretz to build on, to strengthen their internal organization and expand their appeal to the population for the next election.
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